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International Trade Relations After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Africa Rising?

Source: Alex Ansong

International Trade Relations After the COVID-19 Pandemic: Africa Rising?
MarryRight Ghana

This article was originally published in the GIMPA Law Review (Vol 6, Issue 1)

INTRODUCTION

The outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has had a chilling effect on international trade flows. The World Trade Organization for example estimates that global trade will plunge by between 13% to 32% in 2020. Recovery in the global economy is uncertain as the lifting of some restrictions on economic activities will most likely hinge on the discovery of a vaccine or medicine to tackle the spread and effect of COVID-19. Even as states ease restrictions on social gatherings and economic activities, the general public will most likely self-impose restrictions on their social and economic engagements. Such self-imposed restrictions on social and economic engagements that the general public may deem non-essential will almost invariably have economic implications for some sectors of the economies of states. Notable among such sectors is the leisure and its allied industries. As things stood, in 2020, almost all regions of the world experienced a double-digit decline in trade volumes with Asia and the Americas being the hardest hit regions. 

The World Bank’s Africa Pulse Report found that the economic impact of COVID- 19 will likely result in the first recession in Sub-Saharan Africa in the past 25 years. Economic growth will diminish into the negatives. If these bleak economic predictions materialize fully, it will plunge millions into dire poverty. Thus, while comparatively and relatively Africa has so far been largely spared the ravages of the health impacts of the pandemic, the economic impact will be very serious. Trading under the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) was set to commence in July 2020. However, due to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the commencement of trading has been postponed to January 2021. In the post- COVID era, an ambitious engagement in trading globally and more specifically in the AfCFTA potentially hold enormous advantages for Africa’s economic recovery. It is hoped that the long trumpeted clarion call for Africa’s rising will materialize under the AfCFTA in the post-COVID-19 era and bear tangible economic fruits for the peoples of Africa.


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