Generative AI could automate almost half of all legal tasks - Report
It estimated that the legal industry would see significant job replacement from generative AI
Artificial intelligence has long been seen as a tech supplement—and not a wholesale replacement—for legal professionals. But with advancements in generative AI, including large language models such as GPT-4 and the rise of popular AI-powered applications such as ChatGPT, that perception is beginning to change.
In a report released on Sunday, Goldman Sachs estimated that generative AI could automate 44% of legal tasks in the U.S. What’s more, it estimated that 46% of administrative tasks in the country are at risk of automation, while 35% of business and financial operations, and 31% of sales tasks could also be automated.
Goldman Sachs also looked at generative AI’s impact on the EU economy, though it used the European ISCO occupation classification system instead of more detailed industry categories and did not specifically single out the legal industry. Still, it estimated that 45% of clerical support workers, 34% of professionals, 31% of technicians and associate professionals and 29% of managers could be exposed to AI automation.
To be sure, the report noted AI is still mainly a supplement to the workforce: “Although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI.”
However, it still estimated that the legal industry would see significant job replacement from generative AI.
The report assumed “that jobs for which at least 50% of importance- and complexity-weighted tasks are exposed to automation are likely to be substituted by AI,” while those with 10% to 49% exposure would be complemented by AI.
It estimated that AI could replace almost 40% of the legal market jobs, while the technology would be complementary for around 60% of remaining legal jobs.
Taken on as a whole across the U.S. and EU economy, however, the report found that AI would not replace the majority of the working population. “Using data on occupational tasks in both the U.S. and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work.”
To be sure, replacing one-fourth of jobs in the U.S. and the EU will still have a significant impact. “Extrapolating our estimates globally suggests that generative AI could expose the equivalent of 300 [million] full-time jobs to automation,” the report added.
